I haven’t posted on Iraq in a while because, well, it’s just too damn depressing. The war rages on, the constitutional process is a mess, and civil war looms on the horizon. Seems about right considering who we have commanding our military. Just like Vietnam, we are stuck with very few options. Only this time we are helping start the civil war where as in Nam we jumped into the middle of one. And we all know how well that turned out.
Two articles to share. First, this piece from Asia Times:
Why Casey Sheehan was killed
Like Army Specialist Casey Sheehan, I was in Baghdad’s Sadr City on April 4, 2004. I was there as an unembedded journalist (not attached to a military unit). Unlike Casey Sheehan, I came out alive.
I had traveled to Sadr City to cover the Bush administration’s attack on the movement of Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. It didn’t matter that the cleric had millions of followers or that he was the scion of an important political family with a history of standing up to tyranny. (His father was killed by Saddam Hussein’s regime for fomenting revolution in 1999. His uncle, Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al-Sadr, was killed for leading an insurrection against Saddam’s Ba’ath rule in 1980.)
It didn’t matter that Sadr’s forces were providing food aid to the poor or organizing traffic patrol and garbage duty in an atmosphere with no basic services. The problem for Bush and his Iraq administrator, L Paul Bremer, was that Sadr was against the US occupation. So he had to be dealt with. First his newspaper was closed. (See The Shi’ite voice that will be heard, Asia Times Online, April 8, 2004)Then his top advisor was arrested. Then Bremer announced an unnamed judge was demanding that Sadr be arrested on charges of murder. “He’s effectively attempting to establish his authority in place of the legitimate Iraqi government,” Bremer told reporters. “We will not tolerate that.”
That was the last straw. Until April 4, 2004 Muqtada had urged his followers to protest peacefully against the occupation. But the US assault led him to urge his followers to “terrorize the enemy”. In the first 48 hours of fighting, Sadr’s followers seized police stations and government buildings across the country, including the governor’s office in Basra.
At least 75 Iraqis and 10 US servicemen were killed, among them Army Specialist Casey Sheehan. As an unembedded journalist, I saw only the Iraqi casualties (the US casualties being taken away to military hospitals). My translator Waseem and I weaved through roads closed by US tanks until we arrived at Sadr City’s al-Ubaidi Hospital.
There, I interviewed 15-year-old Ali Hussein. He lay in the hospital, a US bullet lodged in his gut. He was barely able to lift his head, but he wanted to say a few words to the Western reporter: “I was standing in my doorway and I was shot,” he said. “I don’t have anything to say to the Americans. It’s just between them and God.”
And this from Reuters via Dr.Cole:
BAGHDAD, Aug 26 (Reuters) – A hundred thousand Iraqis across the country marched on Friday in support of a maverick Shi’ite cleric opposed to a draft constitution that U.S.-backed government leaders say will deliver a brighter future.
The protest could reinforce the opposition of Sunni Arabs who dominate the insurgency and are bitterly against the draft.
……………………………………………………
Sadr returned to centre stage this week after his fighters fought a rival Shi’ite militia, the Badr organisation, raising fears of a new front in Iraq’s relentless cycle of violence.
He is stirring hopes among his vast following at a time when Iraq’s divided politicians have missed a series of deadlines for reaching a consensus on the constitution, which is expected to be put to a referendum in October.
Sadr has also come out in support of Sunni opposition to the federal state that his Shi’ite rivals in government, with their Kurdish allies, have outlined in the charter.
“Bush and America out,” yelled cleric Abdel-Zahra al-Suwaidid, reading a statement on Sadr’s behalf in the Baghdad slum of Sadr City which is named after his revered father, a cleric allegedly killed by Saddam Hussein’s agents.
Another widespread complaint was written simply on banners: “We want water, we want electricity.”
Casey Sheehan, and 9 other Americans, died because the US couldn’t control Sadr, and now we have Sadr leading massive protests. Sadr tried to fill the power vacuum and help his people and he is still doing just that. Cindy Sheehan has every right to be pissed that her son died for this.
I am surprised that Pat Robertson hasn’t called for Sadr’s assassination. I guess since he doesn’t actually control any oil fields yet he isn’t important enough.
So what will a civil war in Iraq look like?
…Unfortunately, there is vastly more at stake in Iraq, the most blessed Arab country in terms of natural resources and strategic geography. Iraq shares long borders with Turkey, Iran, Syria, Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, all of whom it has had at least contentious relations with previously. In a civil war, the temptation for Iraq’s neighbors to forcefully assert their interests would be irresistible.
Given all this grist, how might the dark mill of civil war begin turning in Iraq? It might simply develop out of a continuing, steady rise in the vicious cycle of revenge killings. Alternatively, a sudden breakdown of the political process could lead each sect to quickly assert its interests by force: the Kurds attempting to seize Kirkuk, for example, or Arab Sunnis and Shi’ites fighting for control of the mixed Sunni-Shi’ite towns south of Baghdad – all of which would entail ethnic cleansing. Further ideological and interdenominational divisions would also arise. Inter-Shi’ite rivalries were recently on display in the southern town of Samawa, where supporters of SCIRI and influential cleric Muqtada al-Sadr clashed. Muqtada espouses a brand of Iraqi and Islamic nationalism that could lead his Mehdi Army to side with those opposed to federalism if civil war did erupt.
And then there are the neighbors. As professor Juan Cole, an expert in Iraq and Shi’ism, recently wrote in the Nation: “If Iraq fell into civil war between Sunnis and Shi’ites, the Saudis and Jordanians would certainly take the side of the Sunnis, while Iran would support the Shi’ites.” In essence, a civil war would see the eight-year Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s replayed on Iraqi territory. To complicate matters, any Kurdish success would draw in Turkey. Beyond Iraq, a civil war could destabilize the Gulf, and thereby the world economy. Sunni-Shi’ite tensions could be kindled in states like Bahrain, Kuwait and most importantly, Saudi Arabia , where an occasionally restive Shi’ite population forms a majority in the eastern part of the country (where all the oil is).
Had anyone in this administration bothered to read a history book they would have know full well that the “country” of Iraq would fall apart without a strong central leader. I am beginning to wonder if part of Saddam’s brutality stemmed from the fact that brut force is the only way to hold all these groups at bay. And now the US has to become Saddam if we are to keep peace in Iraq. Good job George.